Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.984826 2.080568 2.182495 2.299837 2.432180 2.578048 2.752744
2025-11-09 1.869407 1.990863 2.125028 2.286157 2.477205 2.700372 2.987127
2025-11-16 1.789931 1.927289 2.083027 2.275971 2.513695 2.804769 3.202289
2025-11-23 1.725846 1.873958 2.045315 2.262935 2.539697 2.892615 3.402237
2025-11-30 1.686068 1.844986 2.032338 2.275970 2.595649 3.020643 3.672717
2025-12-07 1.617540 1.777265 1.967471 2.218021 2.552552 3.008091 3.733098
2025-12-14 1.577153 1.741324 1.939184 2.203908 2.565042 3.071978 3.918749
2025-12-21 1.536617 1.703118 1.905719 2.180233 2.561425 3.110500 4.067853
2025-12-28 1.521347 1.695223 1.909645 2.205425 2.626829 3.257653 4.434379
2026-01-04 1.512656 1.694830 1.922626 2.242855 2.711986 3.445435 4.930315
2026-01-11 1.487274 1.672074 1.905162 2.236780 2.731438 3.527649 5.237048
2026-01-18 1.469332 1.658066 1.898392 2.244905 2.772469 3.651059 5.680407
2026-01-25 1.434459 1.621953 1.861929 2.210464 2.747149 3.658364 5.857497
2026-02-01 1.409911 1.598452 1.841431 2.197810 2.755132 3.727282 6.230032
2026-02-08 1.388114 1.577814 1.823930 2.188411 2.767281 3.805327 6.673254
2026-02-15 1.366720 1.557036 1.805414 2.176426 2.773956 3.873292 7.130992
2026-02-22 1.354917 1.548489 1.803213 2.188359 2.821221 4.030576 8.044184
2026-03-01 1.321670 1.510572 1.759186 2.135170 2.753191 3.934965 7.865236
2026-03-08 1.303368 1.492248 1.741969 2.122194 2.754309 3.990008 8.407895
2026-03-15 1.282990 1.470678 1.719607 2.100411 2.738540 4.005793 8.792416
2026-03-22 1.278184 1.469884 1.726296 2.123584 2.804056 4.217006 10.568824
2026-03-29 1.277049 1.473937 1.739846 2.157969 2.892879 4.505540 13.994198
2026-04-05 1.263700 1.460986 1.728627 2.152392 2.906465 4.607165 16.437635